- With the Ga Senate race over & a Democratic win, President-elect Biden can push for another stimulus bill extending assistance to cities and states to help fight against shutdowns. With this backstop in place, it allows primary dealers to issue paper for those in need. I suspect that if there is another bill passed, it will give money directly to local municipalities.
- Moody’s indicated yesterday that aid of about $80-$100B could cover their forecast for the shortfall facing states and local governments through mid-2022. Moody's stated that these deficits declined thanks to the previous bills, which gave $82B in support to schools and universities.
- In January, $20.6B MUNI bonds will mature, and another $4.8B called. This $25.4B will seek a new home and most likely will find its way back to the MUNI market as bond buyers typically do not take out principal. Also, January - March are generally low underwriting months, and with the race to market at year-end 2020, new issues this year may now be fewer. Many dealers expect this dynamic to continue through the 1st Q of 2021, with $67B maturing and $21B called, thus creating enormous cash in the market.
- Texas, sales tax collections totaled $2.9B in December, 5% less than 2019. Most robust gains were coming from online general merchandisers; overall, TX and a few other states such as OK, CO, and WY led the nation with stronger than expected collections.
- The pandemic has driven MUNI Bond Insurance's use to its highest level in more than a decade. More than $34B state and local bonds sold in 2020 were insured; however, this only accounts for 7.5% of the new issues. This uptick indicates many buyers and issuers will want insurance as we move through this year. Assured Guaranty insured about $19B, and BAM did another $15B of new issuance in 2020. Both companies indicate that they should be on track to do the same numbers again for 2021.
- I believe that bond insurance gave the investor more confidence in March and April of 2020; with the fallout of pricing, many buyers, including our clients, were seeking paper to buy due to the product's insured nature. However, very few if any large AA-rated municipalities who were uninsured filed bankruptcy; this goes back to MUNI's overall safety, which is why high net worth clients like this asset class.
- The MUNI markets had a great year in 2020. State and local governments issued about $457B in long-term bonds, 12.5% more than what was sold in 2019. Due to a sharp rise in taxable paper totaling $140B, this increase was more than double the previous record set in 2016.
David Loesch
605-B Park Grove
Katy, TX 77450
(866) 664-4040 (toll-free)
(281) 398-8600 (direct)
(281) 398-8607 fax
This report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular recipient. This report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report is published solely for informational purposes and is not construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and the division, group, subsidiary, or affiliate of MACC., which is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to specific categories of investors. MACC accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Please contact your tax advisor regarding the suitability of tax-exempt investments in your portfolio. Income from municipals may be subject to state and local taxes as well as the Alternative Minimum Tax. Corporate and Municipal securities are subject to gains/losses based on the level of interest rates, market conditions, and credit quality of the issuer. As with any security, there is an inherent market risk possibility as to principal if the security is not held to maturity. The non-rated (NR) bonds should be considered for investment by knowledgeable and sophisticated investors. Additional information will be made available upon request.
Securities are offered through Mid Atlantic Capital Corporation (MACC), a registered Broker-Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC.
The DRL Group. is not a registered entity or a subsidiary or control affiliate of MACC.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Prices and availability may change at any time without notice. Insured bonds are subject to the claims-paying ability of the insurance company.
Reminder: Email sent through the Internet is not secure. Do not use email to send us confidential information such as credit card numbers, change of address, PIN numbers, passwords, or other important information. Do not email orders to buy or sell securities, transfer funds, or send time-sensitive instructions. We will not accept such orders or instructions. This email is not an official trade confirmation for transactions executed for your account. Your email message is not private in that it is subject to review by the firm, its officers, agents, and employees. Unless expressly stated in this email, nothing in this message should be construed as a digital or electronic signature.