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Thursday, April 11, 2024

The Road to Rate Cuts Just Got a Little Bumpier The release of the CPI report, a crucial indicator of inflation, has significantly impacted the market's expectations for rate cuts. The report revealed that March's Consumer Price Index...

Thursday, April 4, 2024

Markets gave up ground this week. Treasury yields are holding near a 4-month high. Economic numbers continue to be strong, and rate cuts are fading more into the future, which is why you see a price retreat in equities and bonds. I...

Thursday, March 28, 2024

MUNI bond yields have flatlined over the past eight weeks. However, a steady supply of maturing and called MUNI bonds during this time has cushioned the market from volatility. Over the next two months, the number of calls and...

Wednesday, March 20, 2024

President Biden has proposed raising income taxes on higher earners while establishing a minimum tax rate of 25% of households worth at least 100MM. This move is bold in an election year; I think the current administration would leave...

Thursday, March 14, 2024

MUNI bond investors cannot get enough paper as we move through the first quarter of 2024. This week, buyers scooped up a $3B bond offering issued for the hospital chain Common Spirit Health, buying up all MUNI and Taxable portions. A...

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Wednesday, March 6, 2024

Nearly $27 billion will be repaid to investors this month through maturing bonds and calls. Investors will reinvest this cash in our market, keeping demand steady. Primary market: The most significant underwritings expected to price...

Tuesday, February 27, 2024

According to Bloomberg's data compilation, long-term municipal bond sales reached $23.5 billion in February. This figure indicates nearly a 30% increase compared to the pace set last year. February 2020 had the highest sales in a...

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Refunding bond issues will come to the Muni market when the FED lowers interest rates. Refundings have not played a significant role in a long while as issuers have waited for a lower interest rate environment to borrow. It's...

Thursday, February 15, 2024

With the CPI coming out hotter than expected this week, the road to 2% seems difficult. The silver lining is that core goods disinflation still has room to run. If we continue to have hot numbers, I suspect there will be further...

Wednesday, February 7, 2024

Primary market: The most significant sales expected to be priced today include a $1 billion issue for the New York City Transitional Finance Authority Future Tax Secured Revenue and a $540 million issue for the Commonwealth of...

Thursday, February 1, 2024

Powell indicated yesterday that a March cut is unlikely; however, with that said, many expect continued soft inflation data and weaker labor market data (as seen today), which will push the FED officials to gain confidence to move...

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Yields up ~10bps across the curve over the past two weeks. We have been telegraphing a pullback for the last few weeks and are starting to see this now. • Bond traders are growing convinced that US Treasury yields are on...

Thursday, January 18, 2024

As previously discussed with our clients, we are seeing a pullback in January. Muni yields rose 10bps, and the 10-year T moved to 4.25% as of this writing. The January issuance of new bond deals has been heavy and is expected to grow...

Wednesday, January 10, 2024

US business optimism ticked up to a 5-month high in December, which primarily reflects less pessimism around sales, earnings, trends, and economic expectations. Overall, this is good news and should also help equities and FI. The...

Wednesday, December 20, 2023

State and municipalities have sold $364.3B in MUNIs this year, up 1% over the same period as last year. Only 87 underwriters managed at least one deal to date, down from 92. Our business is contracting from an underwriting standpoint,...

Thursday, December 14, 2023

The rate hold yesterday was widely expected, and the FED acknowledged the tightening cycle's end. The FED is sending strong signals the tightening cycle is over, and the post-meeting comments indicated very little pushback against the...

Wednesday, December 6, 2023

For those who remember, the FED stimulus during the pandemic provided timely support to US cities, states, and counties during unnerving times. The stimulus created "hope" during the uncertainty; however, as a result, it caused...

Thursday, November 30, 2023

The chatter in the street focuses on whether the FED will change its rate direction thought process in 2024. There is a ton of news surrounding this and opinions; the consensus is the Fed will cut rates 250bps in 2024. I believe this...

Thursday, November 16, 2023

This year's breakdown of municipal underwritings: $325.8B of long-term bonds, $214.7B of "new money" (first time to market), and $48.4B has been solely for refunding. 2020 and 2021 were much different when the FED kept rates near zero...

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

This week will be important, as we will see if yields and pricing hold following the past two moves of -11bps and -13bps on the yields. This rally came after softer-than-expected payroll data fueled bets that the FED is done raising...

Thursday, November 2, 2023

I suspect, along with many others, Powell will address the recent surge in the T markets, particularly longer-term and shorter-term paper. Powell has indicated his belief that higher term premiums have driven the increase; in contrast...

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Muni bond issuance has been off by around 10% for much of this year. In 2022, long-term sales came in at $361.2B; in 2023, sales are currently at $291.4B. I suspect we will see a heavy calendar for the next 15 days. NY indicated...

Thursday, October 19, 2023

With the 10T surging again, it should dampen economic growth. A month ago, we indicated that the 10T and all T Bills could solve Powell's problem with inflation. Many on the street now believe that if the T Bills continue this path or...

Wednesday, October 11, 2023

UBS Group is announcing its departure from the negotiated underwriting business. Previously ranked 19th in this sector, the firm worked on 15 deals in 2023, amounting to $1.8 billion. This year, 73 firms have engaged in at least one...

Thursday, October 5, 2023

Investors worldwide experience frustration when they incur losses, but individual retail investors in the $4 trillion municipal bond market often compound the distress by collectively selling their holdings simultaneously. We see his...

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Americans outside the wealthiest 20% of the country have run out of extra cash and have "less" money on hand than before the pandemic began. All income groups have seen a balance in declines over the past year, and should we see a...

Thursday, September 21, 2023

Oppenheimer indicated to their clients that more issuers and investors are turning to MUNI insurance, which covers more than 50% of the new issue market. Bond insurance new issuance was lower during the first half of 2023, and many...

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Some economists suggest we will see an increase in bond sales as we move through the balance of the year. They attribute their forecast to lower bond issuances throughout 2023 and the above-average cash positions with investors. I...

Wednesday, September 6, 2023

Recent headline data support the soft-landing narrative: payrolls grew by $187K in August, consumer spending rose by .8% in July, and core PCE increased by .20%. Each report's details suggest that consumption and growth will slow...

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Muni supply will continue to dwindle over the next few weeks, which could deliver a bounce to our markets due to the lack of paper. This decrease will be the lowest in supply since February this year. The visible supply for the next...

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

  The devastating fires in Maui could result in losses from $4B to $6B. Moody's indicated they will review all credit ratings on the island while making specific changes as needed. We will continue to monitor this situation;...

Wednesday, August 16, 2023

Market News & Commentary for the week ending 8/17/23

Wednesday, August 9, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 8/10/23

Thursday, August 3, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 8/03/23

Wednesday, July 26, 2023

    Market Commentary for the week ending 7/27/23

Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Market News & Commentary for the week ending 7/18/2023

Thursday, July 13, 2023

Market News & Commentary for the week ending 7/13/23

Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 7/06/2023

Thursday, June 29, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 6/29/23

Wednesday, June 21, 2023

 Market Commentary for the week ending 6/22/23

Thursday, June 15, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 6/15/23

Wednesday, June 7, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 6/08/23

Thursday, June 1, 2023

Market News & Commentary for the week ending 6/01/23

Thursday, May 25, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 5/25/23

Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 5/18/2023

Thursday, May 11, 2023

CPI numbers were OK, but it will not catapult the FED to indicate they will move rates. Slow progress on the inflationary numbers is the best we can hope for. Overall, we will see a quiet FED until the end of this month.This week, I...

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Market News & Commentary for the week ending 5/03/23

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 4/27/2023

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 4/20/2023

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 4/06/2023

Thursday, March 30, 2023

 Market Commentary for the week ending 3/30/2023

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

News & Commentary for the week ending 3/22/2023

Thursday, March 16, 2023

Market News and Commentary for the Week Ending 3/16/23

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Market News and Commentary for the week ending 3/08/2023

Thursday, March 2, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 3/02/23

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

NY State lawmakers could solve the funding deficit facing Mass Transit Auth NY (MTA) if they pass the Governor's proposed budget. This budget seeks to increase a payroll tax on businesses in the region served by the Authority's subways...

Thursday, February 16, 2023

News & Commentary for the week ending 2/16/23

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 2/09/2023

Wednesday, February 1, 2023

This week, Bloomberg News reported that some of America’s biggest bond buyers, pension funds, and corporate-defined benefit plans, flush with cash, plan to re-allocate to bonds to the tune of $1T. This “de-risking”...

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 1/26/2023

Thursday, January 19, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 1/19/2023

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 01/11/2023

Thursday, January 5, 2023

Market Commentary for the week ending 1/05/23

Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Market commentary for the week ending 12/21/22

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 12/15/22

Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Fitch revised its sector outlook for not-for-profit continuing care centers (CCRCs) to 'deteriorating' as rising labor costs and weakening residential real estate prices pressure operations. The slowing pace of growth in this sector...

Thursday, December 1, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 12/01/22

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 11/23/22

Thursday, November 17, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 11/17/22

Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 11/09/22

Thursday, November 3, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 11/03/2022

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Market Commentary for week ending 10/26/2022

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 10/12/2022

Thursday, October 6, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 10/06/2022

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 9/29/2022

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 9/22/2022

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 9/15/22

Thursday, September 8, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 9/8/22

Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Market News & Commentary for the Week ending 8/31/2022

Thursday, August 18, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 8/17/2022

Wednesday, August 10, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 8/10/22

Thursday, August 4, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 8/4/2022

Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Market Commentary for the week ending 7/27/2022

Thursday, July 21, 2022

Commentary for the week ending 7/1/22

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

Market News for the week ending 7/14/22

Thursday, July 7, 2022

News & Commentary for the week ending 7/7/2022

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Market News & Commentary

Wednesday, June 22, 2022

Market Commentary for the week of 6/22/22

Thursday, June 9, 2022

The University of MI's widely-followed Consumer Confidence Index continues to decline and is currently at its lowest since 2011. The last time the consumer confidence level was this low was when the unemployment rate was 9%. I believe...

Wednesday, June 1, 2022

Last week, the MUNI market turned on a dime; outflows slowed to $1B in the week ended 5/25, the smallest withdrawal since March. The MUNI market staged the biggest rally in two years fueling optimism that pricing may be close to a...

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

MUNIs wrapped up their first five-day rally of 2022 yesterday, a welcomed sight for many. Investors have been "eyeing" these current rates while putting funds to work on the weakness of MUNIs. Yields on benchmark US MUNIs fell as much...

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Thursday, May 12, 2022

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Thursday, April 28, 2022

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Wednesday, April 6, 2022

Monday, April 4, 2022

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Wednesday, December 15, 2021

Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Thursday, December 2, 2021

The State of IL priced a $400MM deal on Wednesday; it is the first of a string of deals coming to market over the next two weeks. IL and other states have been able to get much improved spreads compared to a year ago during the...

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Morgan Stanley said that the MUNI market will post decent returns for 2022 and that debt issuance will fall due to the government stimulus. They are calling for moderate volitivity and, as a result, "opportunity" in the market from a...

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

As we went through a bearish month in October, now we see a turnaround, and buyers are coming back into the marketplace. The $4T MUNI market is off to its strongest week since July. In addition, the flood of cash seeking a home has...

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Voters across the US will decide on an estimated $27B of bonds during this week's elections. The amount is about half of what voters faced last year; this year's total is the lowest since 2017 and slightly below the past decade's...

Thursday, October 28, 2021

I suspect jobless claims to be lower over the upcoming weeks as initial estimates for October are 280M, not far from the average of 218M in 2019. As the Delta variant abates, a lift to consumer confidence following three straight...

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

The PR House of Representatives approved a bill Tuesday that allows the Commonwealth to issue new bonds to replace existing debt and cut its obligations, a critical step that moves the island closer to resolving its record bankruptcy....

Thursday, October 7, 2021

The riskiest MUNI issuers, including charter schools, student housing, and jails, are pulling back on borrowing as many underwriters and buyers will not or do not want to buy that debt in our markets. YTD issuance for this sector is...

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Before the selloff this week, the volume of new state and local government bond sales slowed from last year. Year to date, new issuance is up less than 3%. This slowdown reflects the rise in rates and the economic uncertainty cast by...

Thursday, September 23, 2021

BOA and JPM are at odds over BABs (Building America Bonds). BOA indicated that the colossal sum of money that will hit the markets from BABs would cause massive borrowing from municipalities and spur growth in our markets and the...

Thursday, September 16, 2021

NY State raised its estimate for personal income tax collections by $2.1B annually through fiscal 2025 and slashed projections of future budget gaps. NY and other states are in a solid financial position based on many items,...

Thursday, September 9, 2021

Some economists are lowering their forecast for 3Q growth to a 5.00% annualized rate, down from 7%. The change results from a slew of disappointing consumer spending data, which put the last Q into a weak position as we move into the...

Thursday, September 2, 2021

Even after billions of dollars in stimulus cash has been available for various purposes, cracks are starting to form in America’s higher education system. Nowhere are these problems more prominent than in PA. This issue is...

Thursday, August 26, 2021

This week's critical question in Jackson Hole will be "what signal will Powell give" as it relates to tapering and rates. The finer details will not matter as much as in the past; the focus is on taper talk and rate moves. I suspect...

Thursday, August 19, 2021

The minutes from the FED meeting suggested that they might start to taper in September or October, provided the jobs numbers remain on track in the interim. This timeline has moved up slightly as many saw a reduction at the beginning...

Thursday, August 12, 2021

The Senate passed the$ 550B infrastructure plan representing the most significant burst of spending on public works in decades. This legislation will now go to the House, where its fate is in the hands of the Democratic caucus. If the...

Thursday, August 5, 2021

Many have asked what CA and TX would receive once the $550B deal passes through Congress. Both states are in line for more than $25B each to rebuild their highways while improving water infrastructure. Texas will use funds to enhance...

Thursday, July 29, 2021

As we have followed the Infrastructure Bill as it moves through Congress, an agreement seems to be on the table between the White House and a Bipartisan Group of US Senators. Wall Street was expecting BAB’s (Build America Bonds)...

Thursday, July 22, 2021

I suspect an overseas flight to quality has driven the recent T Bill rally, which will continue due to the pandemic concerns with the new Delta Variant. Most of this rally in the last three weeks has come after the opening of European...

Thursday, July 15, 2021

Chicago has always been on our radar, and we have been buyers of this credit for quite some time. Chicago has transformed itself into a tech community and has attracted talent to the city in this sector. The bonds have continued to...

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Fed minutes for June suggest progress toward a taper move. Minutes noted that uncertainty around economic outlook was elevated and that it was too early to draw firm conclusions about the paths of the labor market and inflation....

Wednesday, June 23, 2021

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke yesterday and reaffirmed they would not raise rates just for fear of inflation. He acknowledged that the effects of inflation have been more significant than anticipated and could be more...

Thursday, June 17, 2021

As we saw on 6/16, the FED sped up their expected pace of policy, tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened inflation concerns. There was no timeline disclosed for any moves by the FED. However, Powell indicated...

Thursday, June 10, 2021

The IRS indicated that tax-exempt interest has been declining on returns since 2018. The date from the pre-pandemic year of 2019 shows $6.2MM households claimed the tax-free interest of $60B down from$ 6.3MM claiming $62.6B in 2018. I...

Thursday, June 3, 2021

The White House is in the process of drawing up an ambitious plan on how to spend the $3560B in FED aid they are receiving under the American Rescue Pan. The White House feels that the most urgent use of funds is to provide relief to...

Thursday, May 27, 2021

CA’s governor indicated that he wants to “raid the reserves” of their unprecedented budget surplus. Facing a likely recall election later this year, Newsome crafted a budget that spends the most money in the...

Thursday, May 20, 2021

Some Federal Reserve Officials were open to the debate about "scaling back" the asset purchases. This "potential" taper talk is not uncommon, and I suspect we will hear a lot of this type of talk over the next several months. Powell...

Thursday, May 13, 2021

The Treasury Department began laying out the groundwork for submitting applications for the $350B in relief funds for states and municipalities. This framework will set up rules to ensure the money quickly flows toward COVID relief...

Thursday, May 6, 2021

IL reported that their general fund revenue in April jumped 46% from a year ago. The total general fund budget rose to $5B in April 2021 from $3.40B in April 2020. We will continue to see these types of moves as states and cities...

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Last night 4/28, President Biden took a risky move while calling on some Americans to pay higher taxes to fund the $1.8T deal he proposed. He promised sweeping changes following the pandemic, indicating this will be a "once in a...

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

States are continuing to slash their deficit forecasts due to the increased revenue stream and unexpected tax flow dollars from our economic recovery. IL is the latest state moving its deficit numbers down to $3B from $5.5B. The...

Thursday, January 28, 2021

The FOMC indicated no change in policy on 1/27/21 and only slight changes to the economy's overall outlook and growth. They are concerned about "pockets of weakness" and commented that the economy's slowdown was much more...

Thursday, January 21, 2021

NY is seeking $15B in aid from President Joe Biden. Governor Cuomo presented a state budget for fiscal 2022. He indicated that if NY does not receive substantial help from the government, it will force him to raise revenue, cut...

Thursday, January 14, 2021

President-elect Biden will unveil today a COVID Relief Package rivaled in size only by last year’s $2Trillion Cares Act. Transition officials developed a proposal with Democratic lawmakers in recent days; the package is expected...

Thursday, January 7, 2021

With the Ga Senate race over & a Democratic win, President-elect Biden can push for another stimulus bill extending assistance to cities and states to help fight against shutdowns. With this backstop in place, it allows primary...

Thursday, December 31, 2020

The $3.9 trillion U.S. municipal bond market is on track to finish 2020 with returns of about 5.2%, marking the seventh straight year of gains and showcasing the rebound from a record selloff in March as fears about the...

Wednesday, December 23, 2020

On many occasions, the FED has indicated that rates will not move for the next several years and unanimously approved to keep the FED Funds rates at 0.00 to .25%, where it has been since March. We remain buyers of High-Grade paper,...

Thursday, December 17, 2020

With the FED indicating yesterday that rates will stay “the same for many years," they refined their communication on the time horizon of asset purchases. The FED signaled a very long-term "dovish" signal and indicated that the...

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Large transportation systems in the US are struggling to retain cash flow. Many are pleading with Congress for FED funds to avoid deep service cuts and layoffs while warning that an economic comeback depends on mass transit. MTA's,...

Wednesday, April 29, 2020