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Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 12.02.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, December 2, 2021

The State of IL priced a $400MM deal on Wednesday; it is the first of a string of deals coming to market over the next two weeks. IL and other states have been able to get much improved spreads compared to a year ago during the...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 11.18.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Morgan Stanley said that the MUNI market will post decent returns for 2022 and that debt issuance will fall due to the government stimulus. They are calling for moderate volitivity and, as a result, "opportunity" in the market from a...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 11.10.2021

David Loesch

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

As we went through a bearish month in October, now we see a turnaround, and buyers are coming back into the marketplace. The $4T MUNI market is off to its strongest week since July. In addition, the flood of cash seeking a home has...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 11.04.2021

David Loesch

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Voters across the US will decide on an estimated $27B of bonds during this week's elections. The amount is about half of what voters faced last year; this year's total is the lowest since 2017 and slightly below the past decade's...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 10.28.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, October 28, 2021

I suspect jobless claims to be lower over the upcoming weeks as initial estimates for October are 280M, not far from the average of 218M in 2019. As the Delta variant abates, a lift to consumer confidence following three straight...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 10.21.2021

Sara Manning-Bracho

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

The PR House of Representatives approved a bill Tuesday that allows the Commonwealth to issue new bonds to replace existing debt and cut its obligations, a critical step that moves the island closer to resolving its record bankruptcy....

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 10.07.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, October 7, 2021

The riskiest MUNI issuers, including charter schools, student housing, and jails, are pulling back on borrowing as many underwriters and buyers will not or do not want to buy that debt in our markets. YTD issuance for this sector is...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 09.30.2021

David Loesch

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Before the selloff this week, the volume of new state and local government bond sales slowed from last year. Year to date, new issuance is up less than 3%. This slowdown reflects the rise in rates and the economic uncertainty cast by...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 09.23.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, September 23, 2021

BOA and JPM are at odds over BABs (Building America Bonds). BOA indicated that the colossal sum of money that will hit the markets from BABs would cause massive borrowing from municipalities and spur growth in our markets and the...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 09.16.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, September 16, 2021

NY State raised its estimate for personal income tax collections by $2.1B annually through fiscal 2025 and slashed projections of future budget gaps. NY and other states are in a solid financial position based on many items,...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 09.09.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, September 9, 2021

Some economists are lowering their forecast for 3Q growth to a 5.00% annualized rate, down from 7%. The change results from a slew of disappointing consumer spending data, which put the last Q into a weak position as we move into the...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 09.02.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, September 2, 2021

Even after billions of dollars in stimulus cash has been available for various purposes, cracks are starting to form in America’s higher education system. Nowhere are these problems more prominent than in PA. This issue is...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 08.26.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, August 26, 2021

This week's critical question in Jackson Hole will be "what signal will Powell give" as it relates to tapering and rates. The finer details will not matter as much as in the past; the focus is on taper talk and rate moves. I suspect...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 08.19.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, August 19, 2021

The minutes from the FED meeting suggested that they might start to taper in September or October, provided the jobs numbers remain on track in the interim. This timeline has moved up slightly as many saw a reduction at the beginning...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 08.12.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, August 12, 2021

The Senate passed the$ 550B infrastructure plan representing the most significant burst of spending on public works in decades. This legislation will now go to the House, where its fate is in the hands of the Democratic caucus. If the...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 08.05.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, August 5, 2021

Many have asked what CA and TX would receive once the $550B deal passes through Congress. Both states are in line for more than $25B each to rebuild their highways while improving water infrastructure. Texas will use funds to enhance...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 07.29.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, July 29, 2021

As we have followed the Infrastructure Bill as it moves through Congress, an agreement seems to be on the table between the White House and a Bipartisan Group of US Senators. Wall Street was expecting BAB’s (Build America Bonds)...

Market News & Commentary - From the Desk of David Loesch - 7.22.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, July 22, 2021

I suspect an overseas flight to quality has driven the recent T Bill rally, which will continue due to the pandemic concerns with the new Delta Variant. Most of this rally in the last three weeks has come after the opening of European...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 07.15.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, July 15, 2021

Chicago has always been on our radar, and we have been buyers of this credit for quite some time. Chicago has transformed itself into a tech community and has attracted talent to the city in this sector. The bonds have continued to...

Market News & Commentary - From The Desk Of David Loesch 07.08.2021

David Loesch

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Fed minutes for June suggest progress toward a taper move. Minutes noted that uncertainty around economic outlook was elevated and that it was too early to draw firm conclusions about the paths of the labor market and inflation....

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke yesterday and reaffirmed they would not raise rates just for fear of inflation. He acknowledged that the effects of inflation have been more significant than anticipated and could be more...

As we saw on 6/16, the FED sped up their expected pace of policy, tightening amid optimism about the labor market and heightened inflation concerns. There was no timeline disclosed for any moves by the FED. However, Powell indicated...

The IRS indicated that tax-exempt interest has been declining on returns since 2018. The date from the pre-pandemic year of 2019 shows $6.2MM households claimed the tax-free interest of $60B down from$ 6.3MM claiming $62.6B in 2018. I...

The White House is in the process of drawing up an ambitious plan on how to spend the $3560B in FED aid they are receiving under the American Rescue Pan. The White House feels that the most urgent use of funds is to provide relief to...

CA’s governor indicated that he wants to “raid the reserves” of their unprecedented budget surplus. Facing a likely recall election later this year, Newsome crafted a budget that spends the most money in the...

Some Federal Reserve Officials were open to the debate about "scaling back" the asset purchases. This "potential" taper talk is not uncommon, and I suspect we will hear a lot of this type of talk over the next several months. Powell...

The Treasury Department began laying out the groundwork for submitting applications for the $350B in relief funds for states and municipalities. This framework will set up rules to ensure the money quickly flows toward COVID relief...

IL reported that their general fund revenue in April jumped 46% from a year ago. The total general fund budget rose to $5B in April 2021 from $3.40B in April 2020. We will continue to see these types of moves as states and cities...

Last night 4/28, President Biden took a risky move while calling on some Americans to pay higher taxes to fund the $1.8T deal he proposed. He promised sweeping changes following the pandemic, indicating this will be a "once in a...

States are continuing to slash their deficit forecasts due to the increased revenue stream and unexpected tax flow dollars from our economic recovery. IL is the latest state moving its deficit numbers down to $3B from $5.5B. The...

The FOMC indicated no change in policy on 1/27/21 and only slight changes to the economy's overall outlook and growth. They are concerned about "pockets of weakness" and commented that the economy's slowdown was much more...

NY is seeking $15B in aid from President Joe Biden. Governor Cuomo presented a state budget for fiscal 2022. He indicated that if NY does not receive substantial help from the government, it will force him to raise revenue, cut...

President-elect Biden will unveil today a COVID Relief Package rivaled in size only by last year’s $2Trillion Cares Act. Transition officials developed a proposal with Democratic lawmakers in recent days; the package is expected...

With the Ga Senate race over & a Democratic win, President-elect Biden can push for another stimulus bill extending assistance to cities and states to help fight against shutdowns. With this backstop in place, it allows primary...

The $3.9 trillion U.S. municipal bond market is on track to finish 2020 with returns of about 5.2%, marking the seventh straight year of gains and showcasing the rebound from a record selloff in March as fears about the...

On many occasions, the FED has indicated that rates will not move for the next several years and unanimously approved to keep the FED Funds rates at 0.00 to .25%, where it has been since March. We remain buyers of High-Grade paper,...

With the FED indicating yesterday that rates will stay “the same for many years," they refined their communication on the time horizon of asset purchases. The FED signaled a very long-term "dovish" signal and indicated that the...

Large transportation systems in the US are struggling to retain cash flow. Many are pleading with Congress for FED funds to avoid deep service cuts and layoffs while warning that an economic comeback depends on mass transit. MTA's,...