Chasing Yields

Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve this Friday, May 22, in a White House ceremony — and bond investors have good reason to pay attention.

If markets were hoping for a quiet Wednesday morning, today’s Producer Price Index data had other ideas.
The April PPI figure surged to 1.4% month-on-month — a substantial overshoot compared to the forecasted 0.5% and nearly double the previous month’s reading of 0.7%.

Quarterly earnings reports have anchored market transparency for decades, but that may be changing.

The US economy grew at a disappointing pace in the first quarter of 2026. The Commerce Department reported that GDP rose at a 2% annualized rate, just 0.5% above the fourth-quarter 2025 rate.

For decades, U.S. Treasury bonds have held a premier position in global financial markets, widely regarded as the ultimate “safe haven” asset class.

Muni Yields appear to have peaked this week with improving demand and seasonal technicals supporting the market.

For years, institutional investors have had something retail municipal bond buyers simply didn’t – real time pricing, broad market visibility, and the tools to act on both with precision.

U.S. Treasury yields are easing as geopolitical uncertainty dominates. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.30% today, down slightly from the previous session and pulled back from an eight-month high of 4.44% two days ago.

The US Treasury brought $183 billion in 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes to market this week — and demand was underwhelming across the board.

As producers and consumers pay higher prices for goods and services, not only is this a painful reality that the Fed will not cut the Fed Funds Rate anytime soon, but it also increases the likelihood that inflation is out of control or not fleeting.

The current geopolitical environment is putting unusual pressure on U.S. Treasuries. Traditionally, geopolitical crises trigger a “flight to safety,” pushing Treasury prices higher (and yields lower).

Concerns about private equity investing escalated this month when Blue Owl Capital, a private equity management firm, restricted investor withdrawal requests from its private credit fund (OBDCII) after selling $1.4 billion in assets to meet those demands.