Chasing Yields

For decades, U.S. Treasury bonds have held a premier position in global financial markets, widely regarded as the ultimate “safe haven” asset class.

Muni Yields appear to have peaked this week with improving demand and seasonal technicals supporting the market.

For years, institutional investors have had something retail municipal bond buyers simply didn’t – real time pricing, broad market visibility, and the tools to act on both with precision.

U.S. Treasury yields are easing as geopolitical uncertainty dominates. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.30% today, down slightly from the previous session and pulled back from an eight-month high of 4.44% two days ago.

The US Treasury brought $183 billion in 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year notes to market this week — and demand was underwhelming across the board.

As producers and consumers pay higher prices for goods and services, not only is this a painful reality that the Fed will not cut the Fed Funds Rate anytime soon, but it also increases the likelihood that inflation is out of control or not fleeting.

The current geopolitical environment is putting unusual pressure on U.S. Treasuries. Traditionally, geopolitical crises trigger a “flight to safety,” pushing Treasury prices higher (and yields lower).

Concerns about private equity investing escalated this month when Blue Owl Capital, a private equity management firm, restricted investor withdrawal requests from its private credit fund (OBDCII) after selling $1.4 billion in assets to meet those demands.

As we start an abbreviated week in the market, investors will be closely monitoring the release of the FOMC minutes for insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.

Now that the President has nominated Kevin Warsh to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the discussion begins about the influence he will have on the Board and the direction of interest rates in the coming months.

In addition to this week’s ADP private-sector employment report for January, traders will be closely monitoring an announcement from the Treasury Department regarding the potential increase in future auction sizes, particularly for long-term borrowing.

This week, the Federal Reserve Committee elected to keep the Fed Funds Rate the same. Chairman Powell indicated there was broad approval from the Board to leave rates neutral.