- Moody’s indicated it may upgrade the Illinois Regional Transportation Authority’s debt after the state legislature moved to eliminate the public transit system’s budget shortfalls. The company said on Tuesday that it will review the rating on approximately $1 billion of the authority’s outstanding bonds for a possible increase. We continue to watch this credit, as the financials have been improving over the last couple of years.
- US companies shed 11,250 jobs per week on average in the four weeks ended Oct. 25, according to data released Tuesday by ADP Research. The figures suggest the labor market slowed in the second half of October, compared with earlier in the month. ADP’s most recent monthly report, released last week, showed private-sector payrolls increased 42,000 in October after declining in the prior two months. As we have reported, with the Government shutdown, outbound data has been nonexistent. Equities are rallying due to the anticipation of another rate cut in December, while yields are steady to slightly up.
- FED Reserve Bank President of St. Louis, Alberto Musalem said he expects the US economy to bounce back strongly early next year, underscoring the need for officials to approach additional interest-rate cuts with caution. “We’re going to get, I think, a substantial rebound in the first quarter,” Musalem said Monday, citing fiscal support, the impact of rate cuts already made, and deregulation. Currently, traders are betting on a rate cut in December, with the odds of a rate cut greater than 70%.
- As a counterbalance to the above, FED Bank President Mary Daly of San Francisco stated that the US economy is likely experiencing a downturn in demand. At the same time, tariff-related inflation appears to be contained for now, and it is warned against keeping interest rates too high for too long. “If you unpack the data, what you see is, you don’t see inflation running up in services or housing, and importantly, you don’t see it spreading into inflation expectations,” Daly said Monday on Bloomberg TV.
- We have reported that 2026 should be another record year for MUNI issuance, 2025 also has been a record year of issuance (for two years in a row), borrowing over $500B as many municipalities tackle crumbling infrastructure needs. This year’s deal deluge has already surpassed the tally for 2024, and 2026 is expected to be around $600B, many are saying.
- Visible supply this week (as we discuss supply) begins the week at 8.90B, which is below this year’s average of 14.6B. This should be a slow week with the holiday on Tuesday; however, I do expect it to pick up on Thursday and into next week. Historically, we have observed that as we approach Thanksgiving, issuance tends to slow down. At this point, there is a 66.20% chance the FED will cut rates on 12/10/25.
- Last week, markets appeared somewhat more anxious about the US economy, with the latest Michigan consumer sentiment survey revealing some concerning developments. The most alarming is that many consumers are concerned about the job market and expect higher unemployment in the year ahead. At the same time, several headwinds could shift the FED’s thinking to more of a dovish approach, such as lower trade uncertainty and AI-driven productivity tools. Currently, we continue to expect four cuts in 2026; however, it is way too soon to tell.
Securities offered through NewEdge Securities, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC. The DRL Group is not a subsidiary or control affiliate of NewEdge Securities, LLC. NewEdge Securities, LLC. has no affiliation to BondDesk Trading LLC or BondTrader Pro, or Tradeweb Direct, Bondpoint, TMC, Market Axess or any ECN.
Yield to call (YTC) is not indicative of total return; this yield is valid only if the security is called. Bonds may or may not be called, or be callable on multiple dates or, in other cases, called any date following the first call date, so yield to call is based on the earliest stated call date. Discounted bonds may be subject to capital gains tax. Bonds may be subject to OID (Original Issue Discount). Prices and availability may change at anytime without notice.
Do not buy bonds based on the Yield to Call (YTC). Insured bonds are issued for timely payment of principal and interest only. Insured bonds do not cover potential market loss and are subject to the claims paying ability of the insurance company.
Non-rated (NR), With-Drawn (WR), or below investment grade bonds, lower rated bonds, carry a greater potential risk of default & should be considered by sophisticated investors only.
This document is for informational purposes only and does not replace or serve as a substitute for your official monthly statement generated by NFS. Please refer to your official statement for accurate and comprehensive account details.
Bonds may be subject to capital gains tax. This summary is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or a recommendation or endorsement of any security or issuer. NewEdge Securities, LLC. and DRL Group make no representation about the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of this information. Bonds could also be subject to the DeMinimis Rule, please consult with your tax advisor for further clarification.
Call us at 281-398-8600 to invest in these or any of our other offerings today.
