Chasing Yields

Treasury yields are mixed as bond buyers assessed future growth and inflation issues following yesterday’s quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and their hints of two additional cuts by year’s end.

This week, we’ve seen a significant rise in jobless claims, reaching the highest level in 4 years, as reported by the Labor Department. This, coupled with the August consumer price index surging by 2.9%, a faster pace than the two previous months, has had a profound effect on the market.

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As Wall Street resumes operations post the July 4th holiday, the market is grappling with the implications of the President’s tariff commentary. The 30-year Treasury is edging towards 5% today, with the 10-year just below 4.5% as I write.

Since the start of the year, both large U.S. corporations and small businesses have faced a highly uncertain financial landscape. With rising interest rates, imposing tariffs, and a volatile political environment, the level of uncertainty is unprecedented.

The likelihood of a 5%-5.25% bond being called in the current and future rate environment largely depends on several factors, including interest rate trends and the issuer’s financial strategy.

A 5% yield on a 30-year municipal bond is an attractive buying-point for high-quality, tax-free investors.

According to Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Chase raised its forecast for 2025 municipal bond issuance from $490 billion to $560 billion.

The May ADP Employment Report, released today, brought unexpected news-the private sector added only 37,000 jobs, a stark contrast to the anticipated 110,000. These ADP numbers, which reflect the monthly changes in private business hiring, mark the lowest point since...

The US Dollar, a symbol of strength and security, is not just a currency but a global’ shelter in the storm.’

As a bond trader for over 40 years, I’ve seen many brokerages and banks consolidate. One of the well-known stock brokerage houses in the 70’s and 80’s was E.F. Hutton, who later became part of a Citigroup/Morgan Stanley joint venture.

The national public debt is essentially a collective responsibility that falls on all tax-paying individuals in our country. This debt represents the fees the government pays to fund its operations, including borrowing costs and interest on loans.