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Chasing Yields

Our latest musings about actions and events affecting the investment landscape

Private Sector Hiring Lowest Since 2023

Private Sector Hiring Lowest Since 2023

The May ADP Employment Report, released today, brought unexpected news-the private sector added only 37,000 jobs, a stark contrast to the anticipated 110,000. These ADP numbers, which reflect the monthly changes in private business hiring, mark the lowest point since...

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Who Will Buy Our Debt Today?

Who Will Buy Our Debt Today?

As the US Treasury prepares to sell $39 billion 10-yr bonds today, the big question on economist’s minds is, who will buy our bonds? The Treasury sells billions of dollars in bonds to fund government debt; typically, foreign central banks…

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Market Expectations Reaching New Lows

Market Expectations Reaching New Lows

The investor’s Consumer Confidence Index for March reached a 4-year low of 92.9, down from 100.1 in February, according to The Conference Board. Also released was the Expectation Index, which lists consumers’ short-term outlook for…

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Are We Creeping Toward Stagflation?

Are We Creeping Toward Stagflation?

Last week, inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell .5%, the most significant monthly decline in four years. Consumers have become increasingly cautious about spending as they digest higher price shocks, pending tariff consequences, the DOGE job losses, and the trickle-down effect of these developments on…

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Bond Selloff Has 30-Yr Treasury Approaching 5%

Bond Selloff Has 30-Yr Treasury Approaching 5%

This week, long Treasury Bond yields reached their highest level in months. Today, the 30-yr T reached 4.915%, the highest level in just over a year and a 59-basis-point change since the close on December 6th. This is also a busy week for bond sales. The Treasury sold...

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