Market Insights

April CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year — the fastest pace since 2023 — and the bond market noticed. Long-dated Treasury yields are pushing toward 5%, the Fed’s internal consensus is fracturing, and the rate-cut timeline the market was pricing just weeks ago has been quietly shelved.

According to data from Bloomberg, investors poured $22.3 billion into municipal bond funds in the first four months of 2026 — the fastest pace of inflows since 2021.

This week brought a confluence of developments that, taken together, strengthen the case for tax-exempt municipal bonds.

The bond market is being pulled in two directions — a Fed that is structurally more hawkish than its single-cut dot implies, and an oil-driven rate shock with no defined endpoint.

We have been reporting on NYC regarding the change in leadership – yesterday, 3/11, Moody’s lowered its outlook on NYC to negative, citing “sizable and persistent” budget gaps.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week. Prices increased by .3% in February, and 2.4% annually, which matched forecasts.

We have been discussing Higher Education for quite some time and the overall risks associated with that type of credit. Ohio Dominican University did not make its bond payment due 3/1, the latest issue the school is experiencing due to financial instability.

Municipal yields are down roughly 4 basis points across the curve in February and down again today across the curve with the economic news this morning.

Minutes from the FOMC meeting should show a broad consensus to hold rates steady after three straight cuts.