Market Insights

Fed Officials Signal Possible September Rate Cut Amid Labor Softness: Three Fed policymakers — Daly (SF), Cook (Board), and Kashkari (Minneapolis) — expressed concern about a slowing labor market, citing weak July job gains and downward revisions to previous months.

This is a busy week for US debt issuance as the Treasury auctions off 3-, 10- & 30-year bonds and a heavy load of short-term bills.

As we know, the FED held rates steady on 7/30, Powell said interest rates are in the right place to manage continued uncertainty around tariffs and inflation tampering expectations for a rate cut in September.

Columbia reached a landmark deal with the Trump administration to restore federal funding for research, easing a crisis that has rattled the school’s faculty and undermined its leadership.

As investors brace for mounting financial strains on hospitals and healthcare systems amid estimates that legislation could push millions of Americans off their health insurance.

• The tragedy that hit our state last week ranks as one of the deadliest and costliest flash floods in US history. From 1980 through last year, flooding has killed hundreds of people nationwide and inflicted at least $203 billion in losses.

• As we have mentioned in previous notes, we do not expect a rate cut this month by the FED. Beyond eliminating bets or a FED cut this month, traders are also wavering on the prospect of a reduction in September.

As we have reported, MUNI sales are up ~21% this year compared to last year’s volume. State and local governments have sold $153 billion in new debt in the second quarter, already the largest ever, with just four trading days remaining in the period.

• Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged on 6/18/25 and continued to pencil in two rate cuts for 2025, citing high uncertainty over the economic outlook that has since diminished.

As we reported on June 10, Blackrock indicated that it is time to buy MUNI bonds, as supply is ample and prices are favorable ahead of the summer.

The Governor of Illinois reported plans to sign a $55.1 billion budget for 2026, which generates revenue from higher taxes on smokers, gamblers, and large multi-state businesses while pulling delinquent taxes into state coffers through a six-week amnesty program.

The NYC congestion toll pricing raised $215.7 million in the program’s first four months. Since January 5, most motorists have to pay $9 during peak hours to enter south of 60th Street in Manhattan.