Market Insights
Our latest insights on bond market activity
Mixed Economic Signals Keep Fed on Hold — Summer MUNI Outlook Steady
• As we have mentioned in previous notes, we do not expect a rate cut this month by the FED. Beyond eliminating bets or a FED cut this month, traders are also wavering on the prospect of a reduction in September.
Despite Heavy Supply, MUNIs Hold Firm—Rate Cuts Remain Elusive
As we have reported, MUNI sales are up ~21% this year compared to last year’s volume. State and local governments have sold $153 billion in new debt in the second quarter, already the largest ever, with just four trading days remaining in the period.
June Fed Update: What It Means for MUNIs, Retail, and College Credit
• Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged on 6/18/25 and continued to pencil in two rate cuts for 2025, citing high uncertainty over the economic outlook that has since diminished.
Read our latest musings about actions and events affecting the investment landscape.
Scary Headlines! Now What?
Duration: 2:53
Transcript: Well, if you are looking at the headlines and getting a little bit worried, you are in good company.
The Market Hates Uncertainty
Duration: 3:48
Transcript: Well, we all know that the market really hates uncertainty. I think everybody does, really, when it comes down to it.
Navigating Uncertainty in Fixed Income Securities
Duration: 4:17
Transcript: If you’re looking to buy higher grade securities with a higher rate of return, then you might consider going out a little further. If you are only seeking to build a ladder, one to five years in this example, we can certainly help you with that.
How Did We Get Here? Tariffs.
Duration: 5:49
Transcript: We’re really questioning how did we get here from the standpoint of: we’re sitting here in April post-tariff announcement and then, again, a retraction of that tariff announcement just days later.
Nobody Has A Crystal Ball
Duration: 2:52
Transcript: So there’s an old saying out there, no one has a crystal ball. Right? Your plan is still your plan. If you’re one of our clients, whether whether you do business with us or not, you’re watching this and you’re looking at this going, okay. What exactly should I do? What should I expect?
Political Backing, Bargain Yields & Historic Trading Surges Amid Market Uncertainty
We have a video on our website about the MUNI exemption, Are Tax Exemptions Going Away. It is appropriate, based on the news, that a group of Republicans are standing up for the MUNI tax exemption, indicating that the tax exemption must stay. In a letter 7 Republicans...
How You Can Have Confidence in a Market Storm
US investors are currently grappling with a challenging market environment. The recent fluctuations in both stock and bond markets have led to a decrease in the value of their investment portfolios, causing significant concern.
Bond Market Whiplash: Postponed Deals, Equity Losses & the Rising Flight to Safety – What a difference 4 days make
• We saw another +20-bps day on 4/9 based on evaluations as MUNIs continued the selloff. The rout drove the 10-year AAA benchmark to 3.80%, which is the highest since at least 2011, according to Bloomberg evaluations.
Bond Market Reacts to Tariff Concerns & Fed Expectations—What’s Next for Yields?
The bond market is rallying as central banks are expected to ease monetary policy to mitigate the negative impact of the trade war on economic growth. This does make sense, and we expect this to happen. The market is also telling you this with the sharp decline in...